An Equal and Opposite Reaction: expect the unexpected at this 45th Australian Federal Election
The rise of the Freedom Movement is Untelevised and Unheralded, but is certainly not Unreasonable
When we wake up on Sunday morning, what will we experience? More pertinently, is it possible that the power brokers of the Liberal/Labor duality wake up and say, “What the heck just happened?”
Many feel that a seismic shift in Australian Politics is happening. The SMH/The Age Resolve Poll again revealed a continuing dramatic fall in the LibLab vote + continued growth for “Others”. Who might these Others be? If you’re in one of the 21 or so seats being contested by the well funded “Voices of” Climate200 candidates, you might reflexly think that this crew are those Others, which is also what the conservative side of the media might lead you to focus on. And I am not saying they are not a player, but there are 151 lower house seats - Climate200 people, as credible as they may present, are vying for less than 10% of your seats. Notable is the fact that they are pin pointing Liberal-held Seats (as are TNL in NSW and elsewhere) and Malcolm Turncoat is one of those behind them, showing how Liberal and conservative he always was. The big question is, what proportion of these targeted voters are so convinced about the emergent priority of climate change, that they are ready to abandon an established “Blue Ribbon” voting pattern?
But for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction. Let’s not forget the Conservative centre of gravity which much of the Australian Electorate seems to have, at least federally. Labor has governed for only about a quarter of the last 25 years. And even if electors are frustrated on many levels with what has become of the Coalition, based on their fear of the unknown and their abject fear of the Left, I predict a reactive swing back to Conservative options - which of course includes Libs and Nats, but also… “Others”. In others words, I think the outcome of the Climate200 will be a rallying of the Right, much to Malcolm Turncoat’s disappointment.
Back to the Resolve Poll, the combined Lib/Lab vote is 65%. If true, that is absolutely positively the lowest in the history of the Federation.
LNP 34% down 7% from 2019
ALP 31% down 2% from 2019
Others 34% up 10% from 2019
Currently before the Australian People is a demonstration of two parties fighting it out, but failing to recapture the loyalty they could once take for granted. As they frantically campaign on diverse issues, they presume to neglect the Big Issue, which further alienates them from their electors. The Big Issue is the carnage of their disproportionate pandemic response, which conclusively did more harm than good (see Sanjeev Sabhlok’s Spectator article here (https://bit.ly/3Loc9JL). The Prime Minister and his Party must take responsibility for this, rather than pass the buck. On March 20, 2020, Morrison incorrectly asserted that this was a once in 100 year event akin to the Spanish Flu. Rather than retract it and apologise for introducing this ridiculously inappropriate yard stick (this would have required >200 million deaths worldwide), he stuck with this lie. In fact, even despite his claimed opposition to the harsh/ineffective state lockdowns, he later used the same false comparison to claim that he had saved 30,000 lives! A quote from another recent article by Sanjeev is pertinent:
If Menzies were alive, he would have rejected his own Liberal Party which has gone astray. Its apparatchiks have supported Morrison’s deceit: his blatantly false comparison of Covid with the Spanish flu to justify his CCP-imitation policies and his claim that he has saved 30,000 lives.
He can duck, weave and whinge, but Morrison and his fellows have lead the Liberals to the Precipice of Destruction. Visit any branch and you will find those who feel betrayed. Mention “Menzies Values” and they will let out a whimper. The infiltration of the Liberal Party by people who are of the Left has been going on for 20+ years and it shows. Like when last year SA Liberal Michelle Lensink introduced a late term abortion bill, altering the Criminal Code to do so, something Vic Labor did in 2008. Or this past week, as Vic Legislative Council member Bernie Finn faces censure and expulsion for expressing his views on abortion, an activity which classically would have come under the rubric of free speech. In other words, the Liberals are showing signs of no longer tolerating the liberal value of free speech, not a good look for the Party of Menzies. Like it or not, people do conflate State political dramas with Federal. And for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction, like this one from the Australian Christian Lobby (https://bit.ly/3LpWBoL):
The Australian Christian Lobby has warned the Liberal Party it risks alienating a “major part” of its base if it dumps conservative MP Bernie Finn from the parliamentary team, and has begun rallying its members to make their complaints known to Liberal MPs.
The Conservative Element of Liberal, especially those you prioritise freedom, personal choice and thoroughgoing rule of law, will be looking for a home. They may choose to camp out with the Liberal Vote once more, the lesser of two evils in their view, but it no longer feels like home. They will buffer the socialist trend, both in its covert and overt forms, anyway they can. They may well be resolved to follow the “Put the Majors Last” preference strategy, which best ensures disruption for the settled two party system. This may end up giving a guernsey to candidates from FFMPs (“Freedom-friendly Minor Parties”, in the parlance of the Freedom Movement, thanks to the viral video by Topher Field), whilst not allowing preference flow to the Left. At the very least, it will send a big message back to Liberal HQ. Importantly, the PML strategy, or rather the preference flow from FFMPs is likely to benefit some Liberal Candidates, even to the point of causing upsets in Labor seats. And no one sees it coming. Check out PML here: https://majorslast.com.
In my journey of life, I have learnt that there is no substitute for knowing a something first hand, experientially, multidimensionally. As a medical scientist, I have understood the value and importance of being conservative in any conclusion or prediction. I’ve also learnt that no story involving real people has just one side, one angle.
I say that because I was there. I was there, when hundreds of thousands of Victorians were marching in the streets of Melbourne against the Corrupt Andrew’s Government and Dan’s totalitarian Pandemic Powers Bill. When hundreds of thousands were voicing their resistance to the segregation, overreach and government abuse. If you doubt that it was hundreds of thousands, I will tell you my estimate is that on up to 3 occasions there was 500,000. The media didn’t cover it and would sometimes publish overhead photos from small days, when reporting on very big days. Overhead drone photography was used to generate the estimates. The Freedom Movement are real people, who have with real stories and value critical thinking. The crisis has lead them to think through what is really important and to come to grips with issues like the our tradition of liberal democracy, the Constitution and Rule of Law. They understand how all the overreach and government interference has occurred in a relative void of principle and Values, left in wake of a decade of anti-traditional hostility. Consequently, the Freedom Movement has become the Values Movement. The Freedom Movement is a big tent, a broad church in which the libertarian and conservative can and do collaborate.
As a rough estimate, the 500,000 marchers gathered at one time in this state has to represent at least 1 million Freedom voters. Flowing from this, knowing that there are 4.36 million registered voters in Australia, we are set for an incredible showdown. Freedom Voters are educated and politically activated determined to make their vote count - they know who their parties and candidates are. Whatever the outcome, we will know the size of the Freedom Vote next week. Regardless of the Scoreboard, we will continue to collaborate and work hard for the freedom of all Australians. We see little evidence that the 2 party system is aware of the threat which the Movement represents. I hope I’ve given you reasons to not underestimate the Freedom Vote and the effect of migrating Conservatives in the calculus of the 45th Federal Election. Whether we win seats or not, we are a decisive factor; we expect disparagement from a failed MSM (main-stream media) and we will not be dissuaded and we will not loose momentum.
The Revolution will not be televised - except perhaps with Saturday night’s Election Coverage. I hope Sunday morning is very satisfying for you! And just in case I influence anyone's vote, all political content is authorised by G. O'Rourke for the Australian Federation Party, 101 Collins St Melbourne 3000 Victoria Australia.